The NFL offseason is just about over as teams head to training camp this week. That means it’s time to think about our best bets, including which teams we think will fall short of their wins total.
Every year, it’s always fun to ride the bandwagon of a new team thanks to a bet. Before the season starts, you get your over under numbers, you choose one or a few teams to put money on, then you ride it out all year. If the team surpasses expectations, you win money! It may be the most fun part about the NFL for the fair-weather fan.
Then, there’s the opposite of that. There’s the fans who love to bet against a team’s success. These are the bets you should be paying attention to this season, because Vegas doesn’t have any team at worse than five wins.
On average, around four teams will fall below five wins every year. Usually, there’s a surprise team that falls off the map, then a few teams that never had a chance. Here, we tell you which teams will fall under that threshold, and a couple that will fall short of expectations.
For those who are new to betting, casinos in Las Vegas will set lines for each NFL team, telling the bettor how many wins they expect them to get in 2019. You can bet the over or the under on that. There are odds set to all of them.
Now, let’s take the New England Patriots as an example. Their over/under this year is 11 wins. The odds are -120 for the over and +100 for the under. So, in laments terms, a bettor has to bet $120 on the over to win $100 back (receiving $220 total on the win). The under is a basic one-for-one bet. If you bet $100, you expect to win $100. If the bet is a push, you get your original bet back.
It’s well known that sometimes Vegas will pad the over bet because most casual bettors like to bet on teams to win rather than lose. Some bets might be as much as half a win different because of it. That means betting the under might be the way to go, and we will guide you to more money in your pockets.
These five teams will not make their over/under bet, and will be a disappointment to their fans, and anyone who bets against this list.
5. San Francisco 49ers
NFL Team Wins Bet: 8
2018 Wins Total: 4
Over Odds: -120
Under Odds: +100
This is literally all based on hope for Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s why Vegas is predicting that the San Francisco 49ers will double their wins this season. Garoppolo is coming off a torn ACL, which derailed the team’s season last September. After giving Jimmy G a monster contract, the 49ers are going to play with their QB with child’s hands.
It shows they are worried about him going down again, and they should be. Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard are… fine behind him. However, their peak does not get the 49ers to .500. That’s the only way to win this bet without Garoppolo.
Let’s say Jimmy G does stay healthy, will he play at his peak of two years ago, or will he need some time to get back?
There are other factors. The 49ers added Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jason Verrett to the defense, a defense with some really good talent already. They did get better on defense, but this is a scoring league. Adding Tevin Coleman seemed like a lateral move, taking carries away from skilled young running backs Matt Breida and Jerrick McKinnon, who’s coming off his own season-ending injury.
Then, there’s the schedule. They of course have to play the Seahawks and Rams two times this year. Then, they end the season with a juggernaut schedule. They play the Packers, Ravens, Saints, Falcons, Rams and Seahawks all in a row in the final six weeks of the season. If the 49ers go into that game 6-4, they’d need to go 3-3 during that stretch.
Nick Bosa definitely helps brings a playmaker to the defense, but this team needs a little more.