Offensive Rookie of the Year can be one of the most profitable bets to make every season. Which players could make bettors a lot of money this season?
This award is one of the hardest awards to predict every season. Over the past 20 years, 15 quarterbacks have won the MVP award and the other five winners were running backs. Now, offensive rookie of the year? Over the past 20 years there have been seven quarterbacks, 10 running backs and three wide receivers.
Clearly, the voters of this award are all over the place. Last year, we had a great QB and a great RB, and Saquon Barkley ended up winning. That doesn’t usually happen when it comes to awards. Except with this award.
That actually makes betting on this award interesting. Bettors can go off the map and make a ton of money. Right now, outside of the favorite Kyler Murray, the worst odds you can get is 8.5/1.
Murray seems like the bet to make, but again look at the past. The last time the number-one overall pick won the Rookie of the Year award was Cam Newton in 2011. That’s because most of the time, that top rookie goes to an absolutely awful team. The same is true for Murray, who’s not only a rookie on a bad team, but he’s going to a team with a rookie head coach who will have a lot of mistakes in his first year.
Then look at those odds. +175? That’s putting a big bet on something that just hasn’t happened very often. When Patrick Mahomes is +550 for NFL MVP, and that’s much more likely to happen, Murray’s odds are nuts.
That means there are a lot of players that can jump into that spot. So, which one should we be paying attention to?