NFL Odds, Stacking the Box

NFL Week 4 best bets to make (or not, depending on your level of trust)

On this week’s episode of Stacking the Box, Matt Verderame and Geoff Schwartz take a look at a few points spreads and see what they like for Week 4.


 


Week 4 of the 2019 NFL season has arrived. While it is still far too early for us to know who will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at Super Bowl LIV down in Miami in February, we can get a clearer picture of who’s good, who’s not and how we can bet against the spread.

On this week’s episode of Stacking the Box, FanSided‘s Matt Verderame and Josh Hill, along with former NFL offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz take a look at the odds for some of the more intriguing games of the Week 4 slate.

When the Green Bay Packers host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football this week, Schwartz says he did put a wager on the Eagles under 20.5 points, citing quarterback Carson Wentz hasn’t played well this season and Green Bay has looked solid on defense through three weeks (11:10). Verderame will swallow the five points to take the Packers to cover at home.

For the Sunday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints, Verderame likes the Cowboys to cover the three-point spread on the road versus the Saints, citing the Cowboys’ defense as a deciding factor (12:40). Schwartz disagrees with Verderame and will take the Saints getting points at home in a “Pros vs. Joes” game.

In what should be a terrible Monday Night Football game between a pair of winless teams in the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers, Schwartz wisely decides to pass on this game and if he had to pick something, he’s going with under 43.5 (14:19). Verderame says he’ll take the under because “Mason Rudolph is awful”. Here’s to some bad quarterback play in primetime!

In a battle of unbeaten teams in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills will host the New England Patriots in Orchard Park. Schwartz wants to stay away from this game but does say that the Bills getting 7.5 points would be the move to make if you feel strongly about this one. (16:10). It’s hard to bet against the Evil Empire. Verderame will swallow the 7.5 to take New England on the road.

For the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions, of course, Verderame is picking the Chiefs to cover the seven-point spread (17:50). This will be the first time Patrick Mahomes will have played in a dome in his NFL career, so look out, Lions. Schwartz is taking the Lions because getting seven points at home is a lot for a team that has a good receiving corps.

When the Seattle Seahawks take on the Arizona Cardinals, Schwartz is going to pass because he doesn’t trust either Arizona or Seattle at this point (21:20). Citing Schwartz’s cowardice to not bet on this game, Verderame will take Seattle to cover the five points on the road in Glendale in this division rivalry game out west.

Finally, when the Minnesota Vikings face their division rival in the Chicago Bears, Schwartz likes over 3.5 turnovers in the game but feels that under 38.5 is the best play here (23:45). Points will be at a premium here in what will probably be an ugly game. Verderame echoes Schwartz’s sentiment in over 3.5 turnovers and under 38.5 points. Neither is touching the three-point spread.

Overall, it seems that Verderame was more willing to take wagers on the points spreads this week, while Schwartz tended to find the best value in the over/under. If the Chiefs don’t cover the seven-point spread on the road versus the Lions, expect a Verderame Meltdown in the ensuing aftermath.

Here are some other topics that were touched on this week’s episode of Stacking the Box:

  • The New England Patriots are better than the Kansas City Chiefs (4:00)
  • The Los Angeles Rams are starting to get figured out (5:15)
  • Can the Baltimore Ravens beat good teams (9:30)?
  • Things will get easier for the Oakland Raiders when they move to Las Vegas (37:47)

All this and more!

Subscribe to Stacking The Box and follow Geoff Schwartz, Matt Verderame and Josh Hill on Twitter.

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