FanSided’s Week 16 NFL betting guide is live with advice for all the games.
Christmas is a few days away and the NFL’s teams are all looking for different things under their trees. Some squads are hoping to find a playoff berth while others would like to get a new coach or a top draft pick in their stockings.
Sorting through the different motivations for each NFL team makes figuring out how to bet on this week a messy proposition. FanSided is here to help, offering insights and strategies for how to bet on each game on the schedule in Week 16, with all lines provided courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Friday, Dec. 25
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)
Line: Saints -7
Over/Under Total: 51.5
In lieu of a Thursday night game on Christmas Eve, the NFL opted to schedule this game on Christmas Day. Each team enters on a two-game losing streak, with Minnesota’s likely knocking it out of the playoffs while New Orleans cost itself a chance at home-field advantage.
The line here is seven, which seems fair, but it is worth wondering how motivated the Vikings will be to play this game with slim playoff hopes and being away from their families on Christmas. The Saints should roll in this one with much more on the line so lay the seven points and play the over in a game that could turn into a laugher.
Saturday, Dec. 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at Detroit Lions (5-9)
Line: Buccaneers -9.5
Over/Under Total: 53.5
Tampa Bay didn’t make things easy last week, falling way behind early in Atlanta before rallying to win in the second half, resulting in a failure to cover the number. This week sees Tom Brady’s team headed to Detroit to take on a Lions team that is out of playoff contention and nearly double-digit underdogs at home.
Expect to see a more focused effort from Tampa Bay this week, particularly on defense, which should lead to the Buccaneers covering the 9.5 points. The total is high at 53.5 but it’s fair to wonder how much success a banged-up Matthew Stafford will have against the Tampa Bay defense so play the under in this one.
San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
Line: Cardinals -4.5
Over/Under Total: 48.5
These teams last met in Week 1, when Arizona stunned San Francisco at Levi’s Stadium, setting the tone for what would happen for each side this year. The Cardinals are now closing in on a playoff berth while the 49ers are done after injuries torpedoed their season.
There should be a revenge factor here for San Francisco but this team is certainly road-weary after spending the past month away from Santa Clara due to local government ordinances, a factor that became clear when the Cowboys pushed them around last week. The line is tricky with Arizona laying 4.5 but the 49ers have nothing to play for here so lay the points anyway. Play the over since Arizona has had a tendency to play high-scoring games against teams with competent offenses.
Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
Line: Dolphins -2.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
This is truly the last stand for the Raiders, who looked primed to go to the playoffs a month ago only to drop four of their last five games. A brutal defense has played a role in this collapse, which could continue as a disciplined Dolphins’ team travels to Las Vegas on Saturday.
Miami is favored by 2.5 points and needs this win to move closer to a playoff spot of their own so expect them to take care of business and win by a field goal. Play the over as well since Las Vegas’ lousy defense should help inflate this total.
Sunday, Dec. 27
Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Line: Chiefs -10.5
Over/Under Total: 53.5
The Chiefs have actually failed to cover in six straight games, a shockingly long stretch of tight games for the defending champions, but that run should end this week. Atlanta is simply a bad team that has been eliminated from the postseason and will have little interest in putting up much of a fight in this game.
The line is 10.5 but Kansas City should win by at least two touchdowns, so lay the points with confidence here. It is also never a bad move to play the over in a game where Patrick Mahomes is involved since the Chiefs can put up 40 points at the drop of a hat, leaving plenty of garbage time for Matt Ryan and the Falcons to chip in a few scores.
Chicago Bears (7-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)
Line: Bears -7.5
Over/Under Total: 46.5
This game has trap written all over it. The Bears are back in the playoff hunt thanks to a two-game winning streak and have designs on sneaking into the postseason at 9-7 but Jacksonville has shown a propensity to keep games close before falling short in the end.
The thing that leads you towards the Jaguars here is the half-point hook, meaning Chicago can win by a touchdown and still fail to cover. Take advantage of the hook and grab the points with the Jaguars, who will likely see this game as their last opportunity for the players and coaches to score a win in 2020. Neither offense is particularly great so play the under in a potentially low-scoring game.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1) at Houston Texans (4-10)
Line: Texans -8
Over/Under Total: 46.5
This game means absolutely nothing in the standings but it will be interesting to see how Cincinnati responds following their massive upset over the Steelers on Monday night. This line may shift more towards the Bengals in the coming days which makes it a smart play to wait and lock in the Texans if it dips below a touchdown for some reason.
Cincinnati is a young team going on the road on a short holiday week following an emotional win so this screams letdown game. Lay the points with the Texans and play the over in a game where Deshaun Watson should pick apart the Bengals’ questionable defense.
Cleveland Browns (10-4) at New York Jets (1-13)
Line: Browns -9.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
Cleveland had a grand time at MetLife Stadium on Sunday night and will be back again to take on the Jets, fresh off a stunning win in Los Angeles that could set the franchise back a decade. New York has played hard down the stretch, covering in four of their last six games, so lean towards a cover again since they are getting nearly 10 points at home against a team that isn’t extremely explosive on offense.
The smarter play here may well be the over of 47.5, especially since the Jets’ offense has looked more competent in recent weeks. The Browns will probably prevail somewhere in the 31-24 range so this would take care of the over.
Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)
Line: Colts -1.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
This line completely flipped in the span of a day, going from the Steelers laying three points to getting 1.5 at home after an embarrassing loss to the Bengals. There are definitely signs of concern with Pittsburgh but getting them as home underdogs is tremendous value regardless of the opponent.
Indianapolis has been playing well but nearly gave away two games to the Texans in the past few weeks, making them vulnerable to a loss here if Philip Rivers commits an ill-timed turnover. Take the Steelers as a home underdog and play the under in a game where two dominant defenses should keep the total very low.
New York Giants (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Line: Ravens -10.5
Over/Under Total: 45.5
A step up in weight class hasn’t done well for the Giants, who have gotten beaten up badly in two home games against playoff contenders. This week brings a trip to Baltimore, which appears to have righted the ship with two huge offensive efforts in consecutive victories.
The Ravens are poised to blow the Giants out of the water here so lay the points with Baltimore to make a big statement. Play the over here as well since Lamar Jackson will contribute a lot of points to the total in a game the Ravens could end up winning 35-14.
Carolina Panthers (4-10) at Washington Football Team (6-8)
Line: Football Team -2.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
This game got a lot trickier to project thanks to an uncertain quarterback situation for Washington. Alex Smith’s status is uncertain due to a calf injury while Dwayne Haskins could face potential discipline after violating the NFL’s COVID protocols by partying maskless at a club over the weekend.
Watch who is under center for the Football Team before betting locking in this number. If Haskins is cleared to play the Washington defense should take care of business and cover the 2.5 point spread. The safer play is the under in what will undoubtedly become a low-scoring game.
Denver Broncos (5-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
Line: Chargers -3
Over/Under Total: 48.5
This game truly is impossible to figure with two bad teams going nowhere playing in a meaningless game after Christmas. Going with the home team when in doubt is never a bad move so laying the three with the Chargers feels like a good move.
The more obvious choice is to hammer the over on teams that have had issues defensively and that feature talented young quarterbacks. This game should turn into a barnburner so go for the over before worrying about the spread.
Los Angeles Rams (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
Line: Seahawks -1.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
The Seahawks can clinch the division with a win over the Rams, who won their first meeting but are coming off a brutal loss to the Jets. Revenge will certainly be on the mind of Seattle, which is laying just a point and a half at home in a line you should absolutely pounce on.
The total is surprisingly low at 47.5 for a game featuring one suspect defense in Seattle and a Rams’ unit that let the Jets go up and down the field a week ago. Play the over as this one should be much more explosive than people think.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1) at Dallas Cowboys (5-9)
Line: Eagles -2.5
Over/Under Total: 49.5
This game won’t be pretty but it is a de facto elimination game in the NFC East with the loser pretty much out of the division race before Week 17. The Eagles have looked much better with Jalen Hurts under center, winning two straight games while Dallas has also picked up two consecutive victories.
The spread really doesn’t mean much here since whoever wins should cover but lean towards Philadelphia since Hurts is playing a more dynamic game than Andy Dalton right now. The smarter play is the over in a contest with two bad defenses.
Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)
Line: Packers -3
Over/Under Total: 56.5
The total in this game is absolutely wild at 56.5 and a lot of that is due to the shaky nature of Tennessee’s defense. The Titans have gotten pushed around a bit of late, but the total does feel quite high considering these two teams will look to establish the run and control the clock.
Green Bay can move one step closer to clinching home-field advantage with a win and is laying only three points at home. That is an absolute bargain so lay the points with Aaron Rodgers on a chilly night at Lambeau Field.
Monday, Dec. 28
Buffalo Bills (11-3) at New England Patriots (6-8)
Line: Bills -7
Over/Under Total: 46
The AFC East is finally going to someone else. New England was eliminated from the playoffs last week and is clearly a bad football team with whatever remained of the Patriots’ mystique getting completely shattered this season.
Buffalo is looking to bolster its seeding ahead of the playoffs and should stomp all over New England so lay the seven points with confidence. Play the under as well since the Patriots have had a ton of trouble scoring points, making it likely the Bills go up somewhere around 24-3 early in the second half and can take their foot off the gas down the stretch.