Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes outperformed the best quarterbacks in the league in the Conference Championships. We have his report card and analysis.
The AFC Conference Championship game did not disappoint fans who expected a high-scoring, offensive affair. The Kansas City Chiefs pushed the Buffalo Bills beyond their limit in a 38-24 win. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes starred on a day where Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen tried to take his crown as the best passer in football.
They all knelt to Mahomes on Sunday. The prolific passer repeatedly gashed the Bills en route to another Super Bowl appearance.
Mahomes was dominant against a Bills defense that ranked among the league’s best in efficiency in the last quarter of the season. His stat line was 29-of-38 for 325 yards and three downs touchdown, right in line with the fact that he played a near-perfect game. We’re going to break it down.
We’re looking beyond the stat sheet to analyze Mahomes this season. I’ve been charting catchable passes for the last six years for collegiate quarterback prospects, and the results have brought solid baselines in key areas of accuracy to project NFL success.
Mahomes benefitted from this, and the project is partially why I was so high on him as a prospect. We’ll be grading him on playmaking, decision-making, accuracy, efficiency, and awareness in addition to tracking his directional and situational passing effectiveness.
Playmaking: A-
The stark contrast between Mahomes and Allen was on full display throughout this entire game. Though Allen was hyped as a challenger to Mahomes’ throne, he never stood, and never will stand a chance to the most talented passer to play in the NFL. A large portion of that is because Mahomes has the innate ability to create plays with subtle moves as well as the highlight throws that cripple a defense’s will.
While Allen couldn’t stop retreating backwards or rolling into pressure, Mahomes was able to manipulate defenders into losing their balance. Defenses have no chance at guarding Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for any type of extended period of time and they have the perfect quarterback to buy whatever he needs.
His understanding of leverage and momentum as well as his athletic advantages continually showed this week. Not only was he compensating for a nine-point deficit early on, but more offensive line injuries piled up, leaving him with one of the least-qualified lines I’ve ever seen make the playoffs.
Decision-Making: A+
The Bills tried to buy time for their pass-rush to get home by playing a ton of zone but they failed. They tried rushing Mahomes, and he responded throwing a catchable ball on seven-of-10 passes under pressure. He had two passes broken up and another tipped but there was never the chance for a turnover.
Most defenses can key into an offense that can’t reliably run the ball but the Chiefs continued to create chunk plays with their vast array of playmakers and speed. Mahomes was certainly part of this, as he kept the defense at bay with a variety of short and intermediate passes to keep the Bills guessing. Just one of his attempts went beyond 20 yards, and it was dropped.
The mixture of compensating for a porous line and knowing the Bills couldn’t play man due to personnel issues was a death knell as Mahomes eviscerated the unit. The game felt over at 14-9 because there was simply no answer outside of an injury or random turnover luck. But the Chiefs quarterback continued to repeatedly pepper the defense with the right throw.
Accuracy: A+
The hallmark of every Mahomes performance is his pristine accuracy. Only five of his non-throwaway attempts were not catchable, and three were plays made by the defender. It was as clean of a performance as we’ve seen from him all year.
The passing breakdown from this game is interesting because only five attempts went beyond 10 yards, while 10 were behind the line of scrimmage. It’s clear that the Chiefs wanted to protect Mahomes from extended dropbacks and a decent Bills defensive front. They succeeded, and Mahomes’ quick decision-making and accuracy made Buffalo pay for not pressing receivers at the line and showing more man looks.
The timing on throws was also key on several big throws. Finding Hill after he broke towards the sideline, or at the apex of his slant route, provided protection for the ball and receiver alike at the catch point. We also saw the benefit of giving him a runway upfield.
Allen simply couldn’t match the touch and consistency that Mahomes had, and Buffalo never had a real chance to win because of their differences.
Efficiency: A
There’s not much to criticize about a quarterback who threw a catchable pass on all seven conversion-down attempts, and had more red zone touchdowns (three) than incompletions (two) on nine attempts. Mahomes was almost perfect on play-action as well, throwing a catchable pass on 15-of-16 tries.
Only three of his nine conversion down attempts went beyond the markers, and his numbers were boosted by screens and shovel passes. He’s slightly dinged for that, but was nevertheless a fantastic showing of efficiency and confidence when the lights got bright. The Chiefs are never flustered when down two scores even at this stage and it’s frankly impressive they continue to mount these comebacks and win in blowouts so often.
Awareness: A+
Mahomes threw as if he knew he never had to worry about a lurking underneath defender or man pattern match coverage. He knew the Bills personnel and tendencies, and had no issues picking them apart. We’ve talked a lot about his mental dominance this season but to show off his preparedness and acuity in the Conference Championships to this degree was especially notable.
Tampa Bay has already seen what Mahomes can do to their defense when he’s not confused. Though the Buccaneers have the personnel to rush him much more effectively than any other team he’s played recently, their secondary will have to be much better than what we saw the last time they played.
Mahomes has a great shot of leading his franchise to another Super Bowl victory, and be the 10th instance of repeat champions. His mastery of play along with the track team around him and brilliant offensive coaches has combined to create maybe the deadliest offense of all-time.