NFL Week 14 preview: The playoff pictures are crazy

The NFL is entering the final quarter of its 2020 regular season, and there are a litany of great games on the docket with playoff implications.

Matchup

New England Patriots

6-6

Los Angeles Rams

8-4

Thursday, Dec. 10

8:20 p.m. ET

FOX

LAR -6

Best mismatch for Patriots: Kick it. The Patriots average an NFL-best 21.2 yards per put return, nine yards better than anybody else. New England will need great field position to consistently score.

Best mismatch for Rams: Nothing in the air. The Rams permit a league-low 198.3 passing yards per game, while New England is 30th in passing yardage per game with 191.4.

Stat to know: The Patriots (45) and Rams (51) are the two least-penalized teams in football.

Matchup

Arizona Cardinals

6-6

New York Giants

5-7

Sunday, Dec. 13

1 p.m. ET

FOX

AZ -2.5

Best mismatch for Cardinals: Make it count. The Cardinals are tied for the best red zone offense (75.6%) while the Giants are only better than the Jets at 48.5 percent.

Best mismatch for Giants: Get home. The Giants are seventh in sacks (32) and first in quarterback knockdown percentage (11.5%). Make Kyler Murray uncomfortable.

Stat to know: Arizona has taken 90 penalties, most of any team by at least nine.

Matchup

Dallas Cowboys

3-9

Cincinnati Bengals

2-9-1

Sunday, Dec. 13

1 p.m. ET

FOX

DAL -3.5

Best mismatch for Cowboys: No worries. The Bengals rank last in pressure rate (17.0%) and sacks (13). Andy Dalton will have ample time despite a banged-up line.

Best mismatch for Bengals: Stay safe. The Cowboys are allowing a league-worst 4.9 yards per carry. Zac Taylor needs to be smart, pound the ball and take the ball away from Brandon Allen.

Stat to know: Cincinnati only has 34 tackles for loss, only better than Kansas City.

Matchup

Denver Broncos

4-8

Carolina Panthers

4-8

Sunday, Dec. 13

1 p.m. ET

CBS

CAR -3.5

Best mismatch for Broncos: Seeing red. The Broncos’ defense is second in the red zone (47.7%) while Carolina’s offense is 26th (55.0%).

Best mismatch for Panthers: No big yardage. Carolina is third-best in yards per completion against (10.1). Forcing Drew Lock to go deep is always a good strategy.

Stat to know: Denver ranks last in football by ending offensive drives in a turnover 19.7 percent of the time.

Matchup

Houston Texans

4-8

Chicago Bears

5-7

Sunday, Dec. 13

1 p.m. ET

CBS

HOU -2

Best mismatch for Texans: Make the play. Houston averages a league-best 12.8 yards per completion, while Chicago’s defense ranks T-20th (11.4).

Best mismatch for Bears: Hold on. The Texans have forced a league-low eight takeaways, something which bodes well for Mitch Trubisky and his turnover-prone ways.

Stat to know: Chicago converts 32.1 percent of third downs, worst in the NFL.

Matchup

Kansas City Chiefs

11-1

Miami Dolphins

8-4

Sunday, Dec. 13

1 p.m. ET

CBS

KC -7.5

Best mismatch for Chiefs: Score some more. Kansas City leads the league in yards per play (6.5) and yards per drive (43.1). Miami ranks 18th and 13th respectively on defense.

Best mismatch for Dolphins: Find a way. Kansas City is last in defensive red zone percentage (75.8%) and tackles for loss (29). The Dolphins must stay on schedule and cash in within the 20-yard line.

Stat to know: The Chiefs are second in third-down rate (49.2%) while Miami is tops defensively (32.2%).

Matchup

Minnesota Vikings

6-6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-5

Sunday, Dec. 13

1 p.m. ET

FOX

TB -6.5

Best mismatch for Vikings: Force the deep ball. Tom Brady has famously struggled throwing deep. Safety Harrison Smith and linebacker Eric Kendricks can rob the middle, forcing Brady into uncomfortable situations.

Best mismatch for Buccaneers: Stop the run. While Dalvin Cook is great, the Buccaneers rank first in yards per carry against (3.3) and second in rushing first downs (55). Make Kirk Cousins win.

Stat to know: Tampa Bay has allowed a 69.7 percent completion rate, only better than the Jets.

Matchup

Tennessee Titans

8-4

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-11

Sunday, Dec. 13

1 p.m. ET

CBS

TEN -7.5

Best mismatch for Titans: Let it rip. Jacksonville is 32nd in yards per attempt against (8.2) and 30th in yards per completion (11.8). Ryan Tannehill will have A.J. Brown and Corey Davis wide open.

Best mismatch for Jaguars: Step and throw. Tennessee is 31st in pressure rate (17.2%) and sacks (14). Mike Glennon will have time to make plays.

Stat to know: Tennessee surrenders third-down conversions on 53.6 percent of chances, worst in football.

Matchup

Indianapolis Colts

8-4

Las Vegas Raiders

7-5

Sunday, Dec. 13

4:05 p.m. ET

CBS

IND -2.5

Best mismatch for Colts: No free yards for you, plenty for us. Las Vegas has missed 102 tackles, ranking 31st in football. Indianapolis, with 53, is second-best.

Best mismatch for Raiders: No pressure. Derek Carr has historically struggled with pressure. Indianapolis’ blitz rate is 31st (18.5%) and its 15th in sacks (28).

Stat to know: The Raiders allow points on 48.8 percent of defensive drives, worst in the NFL.

Matchup

New York Jets

0-12

Seattle Seahawks

8-4

Sunday, Dec. 13

4:05 p.m. ET

FOX

SEA -13.5

Best mismatch for Jets: Take some chances. Seattle is dead last in air yards allowed (2,363). New York has to protect with an extra guy and take some deep shots.

Best mismatch for Seahawks: Playing the Jets.

Stat to know: New York is last in yards (25.7) and points (1.35) per drive.

Matchup

Atlanta Falcons

4-8

Los Angeles Chargers

3-9

Sunday, Dec. 13

4:25 p.m. ET

FOX

ATL -2.5

Best mismatch for Falcons: Capitalize on errors. The Chargers have the second-worst special teams’ DVOA since 2000. Atlanta should be able to make plays and get great field position.

Best mismatch for Chargers: Go long. Atlanta has allowed 2,129 air yards, second-worst in football. Justin Herbert needs to take shots, especially with the Falcons having a poor pass rush.

Stat to know: Los Angeles has had three punts blocked, most in the NFL.

Matchup

Green Bay Packers

9-3

Detroit Lions

5-7

Sunday, Dec. 13

4:25 p.m. ET

FOX

GB -7.5

Best mismatch for Packers: Win inside the 20. Green Bay is tied for the best red zone percentage (75.6%) while Detroit’s defense ranks 29th (68.8%).

Best mismatch for Lions: Be special. The Packers permit a league-high 19.4 yards per punt return and have allowed two touchdowns. Detroit has blocked a league-best three punts and is 13th in punt return average (9.8).

Stat to know: The Packers rank second in yards per play (6.3) while Detroit’s defense is 30th (6.0).

Matchup

New Orleans Saints

10-2

Philadelphia Eagles

3-8-1

Sunday, Dec. 13

4:25 p.m. ET

Best mismatch for Saints: Get to the kid. Jalen Hurts is making his first NFL start and is behind a line which has allowed the most sacks (53) in football. New Orleans’ defense ranks third with 36 sacks.

Best mismatch for Eagles: Create mistakes. New Orleans has suffered a league-high 24 fumbles. Combine that with Philadelphia ranking second in sacks (38), and there’s potential for turnovers.

Stat to know: The Eagles average the most yards per carry in the NFL (5.0) while the Saints permit the fewest (3.3).

Matchup

Washington Football Team

5-7

San Francisco 49ers

5-7

Sunday, Dec. 13

4:25 p.m. ET

FOX

SF -3.5

Best mismatch for Football Team: Make him uneasy. Nick Mullens has struggled under pressure, throwing a total of nine interceptions in limited time. Washington is T-8th in interception rate (2.8%).

Best mismatch for 49ers: Nothing deep. San Francisco is second in air yards against (1,261). Washington, one of the league’s poorest offenses, will need to go long distances.

Stat to know: Washington has the best red zone defense in football, allowing only 47.1 percent of entries to become touchdowns.

Matchup

Pittsburgh Steelers

11-1

Buffalo Bills

9-3

Sunday, Dec. 13

8:20 p.m. ET

Best mismatch for Steelers: Hold it. Pittsburgh has allowed 881 yards after catch, best in the NFL. Against Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, quick tackles are essential.

Best mismatch for Bills: Short stuff. The Steelers average 9.5 yards per completion, least in the NFL. Buffalo will have opportunities to play tight and take chances on quick throws.

Stat to know: Pittsburgh ranks first in quarterback hits (114), sacks (44), tackles for loss (83) and pressure rate (31.4%).

Matchup

Baltimore Ravens

7-5

Cleveland Browns

9-3

Monday, Dec. 14

8:15 p.m. ET

Best mismatch for Ravens: Making plays. Lamar Jackson will have all day, considering Cleveland ranks 32nd in QB knockdown percentage (4.0%) and 29th in pressure rate (18.8%).

Best mismatch for Browns: Keep running. Cleveland leads the league in rushing yards per game (157.8) and is T-2nd in yards per carry (4.9). Baltimore is T-18th against on YPC (4.5).

Stat to know: The Ravens blitz 43.7 percent of snaps, most in the NFL.

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