The Divisional round is the best weekend in football. This year should be no different, having four games packed with intriguing storylines.
Eight teams. Four games. Best weekend the NFL has.
The Divisional round gives us four tilts with the league’s best on display. No more bye weeks. The San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will welcome in a nation to their venues, hoping to win one home game for a chance to win their conference title the weekend after.
Meanwhile, four other battle-tested teams hit the road with hopes of continuing their Super Bowl dreams. To do so, they’ll each need to pull sizable upsets.
In the AFC, the Ravens meet the Tennessee Titans, who knocked out the New England Patriots with a 20-13 win in Foxborough on Saturday. Baltimore hasn’t lost since Week 4, back when Marcus Mariota was still under center for the Titans. Oddly enough, this was the only possible AFC matchup for Baltimore that wouldn’t be a regular-season rematch.
For Tennessee, the formula against the Ravens is obvious. Pound Derrick Henry at their 21st-ranked run defense and hope Ryan Tannehill can beat the blitz when necessary. Nobody brings pressure more than Baltimore defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who blitzes 52 percent of the time.
Conversely, the Ravens are bringing their record-setting rushing attack to the affair. Baltimore has been dominant behind likely MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson and stud back Mark Ingram, using RPOs to destroy opposing defenses. It’s been nothing short of spectacular to watch.
In the other AFC matchup, it’s Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes as the Houston Texans take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Houston looked dead on arrival against the Buffalo Bills last weekend, trailing 16-0 before rallying for a 22-19 overtime win. It’ll need to be much better in all facets to hang with Kansas City, although the presumed return of receiver Will Fuller is a huge boost.
For the Chiefs, this is about revenge. Kansas City lost 31-24 to the Texans in Week 6 at Arrowhead, albeit without Sammy Watkins, Eric Fisher, Chris Jones and Anthony Hitchens in the lineup. Kansas City allowed 192 rushing yards that day. Since then, only Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry have been able to eclipse 71 yards rushing against the unit.
With a win, the Chiefs would advance to their second straight AFC title game after reaching only one between 1970-2017.
In the NFC, more surprising contests loom.
The Minnesota Vikings stunned the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, winning 26-20 in overtime at the Superdome. Their reward? A trip to San Francisco. The 49ers are getting healthier, adding Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford to their front seven for Saturday’s match. They’ll need all their skill to stop Dalvin Cook, who was the driving force in Minnesota’s Wild Card triumph, notching 130 yards and two touchdowns.
But really, this isn’t about Cook. It’s about Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo.
For years, Cousins was seen as good enough to lose a big game with. He had never won on Monday night or in a postseason tilt. Now he has, chiefly because of two great throws to Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph in the extra period. One wonders how much confidence he’ll carry into Levi’s Stadium with him.
As for Garoppolo, this is his first postseason foray. At times, he’s been brilliant in big moments, slaying the Saints and Seattle Seahawks on the road. In other games, he’s been sub-par such as San Francisco’s loss to the Ravens, and against the Seahawks in their first meeting this year. Which version shows up?
Finally, the Packers and Seahawks at Lambeau. The forecast? 30 degrees and sunny with minimal wind. Score an early victory for Seattle.
Despite being 13-3 and home off a bye, Vegas only has the Packers laying 3.5 points. Translation? The oddsmakers believe the Seahawks are the Packers’ equals. The headlines will be about Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers squaring off, but the real story lies in Aaron Jones against the Seahawks’ run defense.
Seattle ranks 28th against the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Jones is notching 4.6 YPC with a league-high 16 rushing touchdowns. Despite Rodgers’ presence, Matt LaFleur’s offense runs through Jones. If he can rolling, Seattle faces a difficult assignment. Expect the Seahawks to load the box and dare Rodgers to beat them on the outside.
Eight teams. Four games. Enjoy the best football weekend there is.
Power rankings
Top 10 Divisional round shockers of all-time
1. 1996 – Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-12.5)
2. 1979 – Houston Oilers at San Diego Chargers (-8.5)
3. 1987 – Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-11)
4. 1995 – Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
5. 2012 – Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9)
6. 1983 – Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (-8.5)
7. 1995 – Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
8. 2005 – Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)
9. 2009 – New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-9)
10. 2011 – New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8)
Quotable
“I got three words for you. YOU LIKE THAT?”
– Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins postgame to his teammates in the locker room
I have one word. Relief.
Podcast
Random stat
In their first 88 seasons, the Chicago/St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals hosted one playoff game. They made the most of their singular victory, beating the Philadelphia Eagles for the 1947 NFL championship.
Info learned this week
1. Patriots have no great options after loss to Titans
The dynasty is dead. At least that’s the party line outside of Boston.
With the Patriots’ 20-13 loss to the Titans on Saturday, New England faces its longest offseason in a decade. Of course, the looming question revolves around whether Tom Brady returns. For the Patriots, there are really two courses of action, which I laid out in the immediate aftermath of New England’s defeat:
Option 1: With his projected $49 million in cap space, he can potentially sign Brady with more than half that figure before attempting to retain maybe one or two other names from the aforementioned list. After that, it’s fliers, filler and draft picks. The bet here is Brady gains chemistry with Mohamed Sanu and N’Keal Harry, the rookies impress and the defense can stay strong.
Option 2: Let Brady walk. Draft a quarterback in the first round — think Jacob Eason, Jake Fromm, etc. — and rebuild the offense. Fix the offensive line, add some speed on the outside and retain a couple of his own free agents. The bet here is a rejuvenated roster and a young, athletic quarterback can seize the day.
Either way, the Patriots are taking a massive gamble.
The thought here? Might as well take it with Brady.
2. Coaching searches continue on, including peculiar one in Dallas
One down, four to go. Of the quartet of remaining head-coaching gigs, the situations in Dallas in Cleveland are fascinating.
The Cowboys are looking for Jason Garrett’s replacement, interviewing Mike McCarthy and Marvin Lewis. Garrett’s contract was set to run out on Jan. 14, and owner Jerry Jones seemed hellbent on allowing it to expire instead of firing his coach and former backup quarterback. However, with the situation devolving into Garrett pleading repeatedly for another chance, Jones finally fired him, saving any remaining dignity for Garrett.
The interviews of McCarthy and Lewis suggest Dallas wants a coach with NFL experience in the top job. In that vein, college coaches such as Matt Rhule, Lincoln Riley and Urban Meyer might be poor fits in Big D.
In Cleveland, the Browns cleaned house with the oustings of head coach Freddie Kitchens and general manager John Dorsey. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been heavily rumored to be a top choice for owner Jimmy Haslam, while chief strategy officer Paul Depodesta has long been intrigued by Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. With McDaniels now out of the playoffs, look for the Browns to move quickly towards a choice.
Finally, the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants are still deep in their respective searches. Both have interviewed Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, one of the more popular names to be hired over the past few years. Bieniemy might have the rare opportunity to choose between multiple offers as a first-time head coach.
The Washington Redskins are the only team to have already filled their vacancy, hiring Ron Rivera to a five-year deal.
3. Saints have busy offseason ahead with changes coming
The Saints have had three prime consecutive Super Bowl-caliber teams. None have gotten there.
Now, New Orleans stares down a legion of tough choices. The Saints presumably have $30 million in projected cap space once corner Janoris Jenkins is released. Bad news? Drew Brees, Vonn Bell, Andrus Peat, P.J. Williams and Taysom Hill are free agents. Brees is almost certain to return, but what of the others? Any would represent a significant loss.
New Orleans is also facing the ticking clock of Brees, who will be 41 years old next season. At some juncture, the arm is out of magic.
It’s been a great run with Brees, but much like Peyton Manning’s time with the Colts, it feels somewhat unfulfilling despite a ring.
4. Tua’s decision coming Monday from Tuscaloosa
Tua Tagovailoa was once considered a slam dunk as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft. Now there’s uncertainty as to whether he’ll even be part of it.
Tagovailoa and Alabama head football coach Nick Saban have a press conference scheduled from 12 p.m. ET to announce whether the quarterback will return to the Crimson Tide or turn pro.
A league source tells FanSided he believes Tagovailoa will declare for the draft, citing his injury history as a major risk should be return for his senior year.
If Tagovailoa does come out, his stock will largely be determined by how his hip is healing. Good reports and the former national champion likely goes early in the first round. However, bad reports could drop him significantly, perhaps making him the storyline of April’s draft.
5. New decade, new league order?
If these playoffs are an indication, we might be seeing the old guard being pushed out.
Brady and Brees? Old news. Jackson, Mahomes, Watson and Garoppolo? Their time.
Yes, some old heads remain. Russell Wilson falls somewhere in-between the spectrum’s two ends, and Aaron Rodgers is still holding firm as a bastion from the last great crop of quarterbacks. However, this is the first time since 2002 when Ben Roethlisberger, Manning or Brady weren’t involved in the AFC Divisionals.
In the NFC, Eli Manning is long gone. Brees bowed out. Matt Ryan and Cam Newton? Nope.
Maybe this is a blip. Maybe most of the aforementioned names are back in 2020 and beyond.
Or maybe, we’re seeing the shift that happens every 10-15 years.
History lesson
Sam Wyche passed away last week. He should forever be remembered.
Wyche was the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals (1984-91) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (’92-95) and altered the course of both franchises, along with the NFL’s offensive trajectory.
After playing for and coaching under Bill Walsh in Cincinnati and San Francisco, Wyche became a visionary with the Bengals. In 1988, Wyche devised the no-huddle offense, propelling Cincinnati to Super Bowl XXIII. There, Cincinnati lost to Walsh and the 49ers, 20-16. Still, Wyche’s offense became a league staple, most-famously for the Bills of the early ’90s.
In Tampa Bay, Wyche found little on-field success but set up a future champion. While with the Buccaneers, he drafted safety John Lynch, linebacker Derrick Brooks and defensive tackle Warren Sapp. The trio became the backbone of Tampa Bay’s championship run in 2002.
Wyche never won a Super Bowl, but he was universally seen as a good man. He’s also one of the most important figures in league history.
Parting shot
The young Bills learned a valuable lesson on Saturday. When you have a chance to finish your opponent come January, you better do it.
Buffalo dominated the first half against Houston with a 13-0 lead. It held a 247-81 yardage advantage at halftime, while gaining 13 first downs and allowing four. Watson was 6-of-8 for 49 yards and DeAndre Hopkins was held without a catch on two targets.
In the third quarter, Hopkins fumbled in his own territory and Buffalo converted the mistake into another field goal. With under three minutes remaining in the third quarter, the Bills had a 16-point lead. Then, poof, it was gone.
Buffalo scored a touchdown on its opening drive and then never again. It drove deep into Houston’s territory repeatedly but Allen was either sacked out of field goal range or the unit bogged down. The Bills had every chance to bury the Texans and let them live.
Ultimately, Allen and McDermott have to shoulder the most blame. Allen was awful in the second half, including the loss of a costly fourth-quarter fumble at midfield. McDermott was no better. The play-calling had an odd desperation about it, and the game took on a frenetic look. It’s on the coach to settle everyone down in a new, tough moment such as the playoffs are to the Bills.
Buffalo’s arrow is pointing up. The playoffs should be visited again soon in western New York.
Next time, the Bills can’t let their opponent linger.