Antonio Gibson may miss Week 14 against the 49ers (and beyond), so can fantasy managers find value elsewhere in the Washington backfield?
The Washington Football Team beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13, but they had a notable loss during team when Antonio Gibson exited early with a toe injury. Now, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the rookie running back is considered unlikely to play Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.
Gibson played just four snaps against the Steelers, with two carries for 14 yards. He had scored in five straight games prior to that (eight rushing touchdowns), while averaging 97.6 total yards per game. He topped 90 rushing yards in three of those five games, with two 100-yard games.
From Week 7-Week 12 (five games), Gibson was RB3 in standard fantasy scoring (RB4 in full PPR). So there is a significant void to fill as his fantasy managers consider playoff lineups.
Can Antonio Gibson’s fantasy managers turn to the Washington backfield?
In Gibson’s place against Pittsburgh, Peyton Barber resurfaced with 14 carries for 23 yards and a touchdown. He has double-digit carries in back-to-back games, with a total of 25 carries on 41 snaps over the two games.
After a couple down weeks, J.D. McKissic re-emerged against the Steelers. He had 10 receptions (on 10 targets) for 70 yards, registering as RB8 for Week 13 in full PPR. He has double-digit targets in three of the last five games, in concert with Alex Smith taking over for Kyle Allen, with top-12 PPR finishes (at least 17 full PPR points) in all three (RB3 in Week 9, RB12 in Week 10). In Week 9 and 10, McKissic totaled 29 targets (Pro Football Focus says 28 over that span, but the point still stands). Add Week 11, and his 33 targets over those three weeks would have still stood among the most-targets over that span.
Washington’s Week 14 opponent, the 49ers, are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season (Yahoo! 0.5-point PPR). But they are more middle of the pack in receptions (4.8) and receiving yards (37.4) per game allowed to the position
Gibson helped a lot of his fantasy managers get to the playoffs with a well-timed run, and after a truncated Week 13 turf toe may cost him all three weeks of the fantasy postseason. After the 49ers game, the matchups are much easier in Week 15 and Week 16, as the Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers both enter Week 14 in the bottom-10 of the league against running backs (Yahoo! 0.5-point PPR).
In terms of a fantasy replacement directly from the Washington backfield, Barber would be a touchdown-dependent RB3 or flex in leagues with 12 or more teams. McKissic is most viable in PPR as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3, leaving aside his random rushing score in Week 10. But it’s worth noting McKissic finished as RB20 (Week 9) and RB16 (Week 13) in standard scoring in the other two of his aforementioned three double-digit target games. Those outlooks for Barber and McKissic stand for however long Gibson is out, with McKissic as the better fantasy waiver wire add if it can be done.
Barber ESPN Ownership: 1.1%
Barber Yahoo Ownership: 1%
McKissic ESPN Ownership: 73.4%
McKissic Yahoo! Ownership: 49%