Taysom Hill has exceeded expectations in relief of Drew Brees this season, but the Saints shouldn’t be their future on him as their quarterback.
The Saints coaching staff is squarely focused on preparing their talented roster for a lengthy playoff run. The franchise’s front office needs to be taking a hard look at the team’s future. In particular, New Orleans needs to avoid the temptation to believe in Taysom Hill as its quarterback of the future.
Hill deserves a lot of credit for keeping the Saints’ offense afloat without Drew Brees. The 30-year-old signal-caller is 3-1 as a starter. The only blemish on his win-loss record was Sunday’s ugly loss to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Hill certainly wasn’t good in that game, but it would be unfair to say he was the reason why the Saints looked so bad against Philadelphia. Plenty of his teammates also put in sub-par performances in the narrow loss.
Hill running off three straight wins in Brees’ absence gives the Saints’ front office an opportunity to convince themselves that he’s qualified to be the team’s starting quarterback once Brees retires. Most still expect 2020 to be Brees’ last NFL season.
In theory, that would make Hill the team’s full-time starter when the 2021 regular season kicks off. That would be a giant misstep by a front office that’s assembled an All-Star roster in the Big Easy.
Taysom Hill is a viable NFL quarterback
There were legitimate questions about whether Hill could survive as a full-time quarterback prior to his four-game stint as New Orleans’ starter. Hill has answered those questions emphatically by turning in a solid overall performance in Brees’ absence.
The biggest surprise Hill has preferred is his ability to complete passes at a high rate. No one really expected to see his completion percentage hover over 72 percent in extended action. Sean Payton has adjusted his gameplan to give Hill easier throws to manage, but it’s still a major accomplishment that Hill has been so accurate with the football.
Hill’s also avoided turning the football over which has helped his overall efficiency. He’s only thrown two interceptions in 119 passing attempts on the season. Again, Payton’s offense has drastically reduced Hill’s degree of difficulty in the passing game, but he’s still been asked to take some shots down the field. The fact that he’s avoided making big mistakes with the football bodes well for his future under center.
He’s just not a starter for a playoff team
The Saints have a roster capable of competing for Super Bowl titles over the next few seasons. The franchise needs to maximize that window by employing a quarterback who can elevate the talent around him. Hill isn’t that guy.
His inability to process reads at a rapid rate really forces the Saints to simplify their offense on a weekly basis. Part of what makes Brees’ so effective despite his declining arm strength is his ability to get to his third or fourth target almost instantly.
If Hill’s first read isn’t open then his effectiveness drops at an alarming rate. Payton can scheme more open throws for him than almost any other coach in the league, but that’s not a recipe for success against elite defenses.
The end result is that Hill might be among the top 32 quarterbacks in the NFL, but the Saints should be aiming much higher. Payton may be fond of Hill’s toughness and work ethic, but that shouldn’t delude the front office into believing he should be the team’s starter in 2021 and beyond.
What should the Saints do at the quarterback position?
At best, Hill can be a caretaker for New Orleans until it finds a younger quarterback it really likes in the draft. That doesn’t mean the Saints should panic and overdraft a prospect this year, but they should spend a lot of resources evaluating every passer in this year’s draft class.
There’s also a reasonable argument to be made that Jameis Winston should be given a longer look as the team’s starter of the future. In many ways, he’s the complete opposite of Hill. He’s got a massive arm that he loves to utilize to push the ball down the field.
Unfortunately for Winston, too many of his throws have ended up landing in the hands of the opposition during his professional career. It seems unlikely that Payton is going to go with him over Hill anytime soon.
Free agency probably is not a realistic avenue for the Saints to pursue due to their salary cap restaints. They have a very expensive roster full of highly-touted stars. The likelihood that the salary cap is going to decline next season will force them into a series of tough roster choices in the offseason. They simply don’t have the requisite salary flexibility to land a big-name veteran on the open market.
The draft is where the Saints are going to find their next franchise quarterback. The sooner they bite the bullet and expend the resources required to land a premium prospect at the position, the sooner they can realistically expect to enjoy above-average play from the game’s most important position once again.
But what will the Saints do?
All indications coming out of New Orleans indicate Payton is convinced Hill can be a high-level starter. That belief, coupled with the team’s salary cap limitations in the near future makes it very likely that Hill is going to enter 2021 as the team’s unquestioned starter. It’s even possible that Winston will return to the fold as the team’s backup for another season.
The outcome of that poor choice is that the Saints offense will become easier to stop than it’s ever been under Payton’s tenure. New Orleans still might be a playoff team in 2021 with Hill under center, but they’ll lose the right to be considered title contenders if they employ such a conservative strategy at quarterback.