The BetSided team is 28-23-2 on the season in our NFL best bets, and we’re back with four plays for the action in Week 14.
With several teams on the bye this week, there are fewer spots to take advantage of in the betting market. Despite that, our editors have scoured the slate to find plays they are confident in which include three favorites to win and cover.
Let’s dive into the picks:
NFL Best Bets for Week 14
- Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Detroit Lions -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers-San Francisco 49ers UNDER 37.5
- Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Tennessee Titans have been one of the most enigmatic teams to wager on this season. Every time I assume their offense is fraudulent or their defense is too banged up, they go and cover the spread in eight consecutive games. Naturally, in a matchup that suited them well to hang with the Philadelphia Eagles last week, they lost 35-10.
However, I’m not afraid to go back to the well this week at home against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that’s banged up at several positions, including at quarterback with Trevor Lawrence.
Before last week’s game, the Titans’ defense was ranked No. 1 in opponent third down conversion percentage, top two in opponent yards/rush, and top three in opponent rushing TDs/game and rushing yards/game. They make teams become one-dimensional, and while that should have been an issue for Philadelphia last week, A.J. Brown in his revenge game made them pay.
Jacksonville is light years behind Philadelphia on the talent meter and has had all sorts of issues vs. Tennessee over the past several years. Tennessee has won 11 of 12 division games straight up versus the Jags, and is 9-2 ATS in those wins. – Ben Heisler
Detroit Lions -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I continue to lose money betting against the Minnesota Vikings, but I refuse to stop. They rank 29th in the NFL in net yards per play, yet continue to find ways to win games. The Lions rank 25th, but their offense has been much more effective.
Detroit ranks seventh in yards per play at 5.8, while the Vikings rank 21st at 5.2.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings rank 30th in opponent yards per play and have allowed 6.5 yards per play over their last three games.
A big reason the Vikings have thrived over the last few weeks is their red zone defense has stepped up in a big way. In their last three games, teams have only scored a touchdown on 25% of their red zone trips against them, the second-best mark in the NFL over that stretch.
But now they’re about to meet their match in that department. The Lions hold the best red zone offense in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on 73.91% of their red zone trips.
I think Detroit gets its revenge from early in the season and I’m willing to back them as 1-point favorites on Sunday. – Iain MacMillan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-San Francisco 49ers UNDER 37.5
Now that Brock Purdy is under center for the 49ers, things feel a lot different than before. The 49ers – even with an elite defense and a great set of skill position players – seem susceptible to a loss this week.
Kyle Shanahan is good enough to get Purdy to a passable level on Sunday, but he’s going against Tom Brady – who is coming off yet another game-winning drive.
I’ll stick to making a pick on the total. Even at 37.5, I like the UNDER in this game.
There have been three games this year with a total at 37.5 or lower and the under in 2-1 in those games. Both teams are in the top 5 of opponent points per game this season. Their dominance on the defensive side of the ball is going to be on full display this week with a struggling Bucs offense and a third-string quarterback. – Donnavan Smoot
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs. Denver Broncos
There is absolutely no way that I can trust Denver in this spot.
The Broncos are the worst scoring offense in the NFL, and now they have to take on a high-powered Chiefs team that has destroyed them for several seasons now.
Russell Wilson has thrown just one touchdown pass all season at home, and he and the Broncos haven’t been able to buy a score in the red zone all season long.
Give me the Chiefs to win this game running away. – Peter Dewey
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.