The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Dallas Cowboys in the first round of the NFL playoffs as a somewhat-surprising +2.5-point underdog. The Bucs’ overall struggles have been well-documented this season (they’re 8-9, after all), but their issues covering the spread at home have mostly flown under the radar.
The Bucs are 1-6-1 ATS at home this year, which is tied with the Ravens for the worst mark in the NFL. They’re also 0-1 ATS as home dogs this year, giving Cowboys bettors plenty of reason for optimism too.
But while those numbers certainly paint a cash-colored picture for Dallas backers, there’s one reason I wouldn’t be afraid to bet on Tampa Bay in this matchup: Tom Brady.
In the last four playoff games where Brady’s team was underdogs, they’re gone 4-0 straight up. Overall, he’s 7-3 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs and 11-2 ATS as a home dog in the regular season. This is his first time as a home underdog in the playoffs.
Brady is also 20-8 straight up on Monday Night Football (when this game will be played) and is 7-0 straight up against the Cowboys in his career.
One other note: underdogs are 16-8 ATS in Wild Card weekend since 2017, and that’s even with a 1-5 record last year. Home underdogs are also 6-2 ATS in the playoffs since 2015.
Now, you could say this is a new year and a new team and those numbers don’t matter, which is fair. But recent stats suggest the Bucs are actually playing better than the Cowboys heading into the playoffs.
Over the last three games, the Bucs’ offense averages 5.3 yards per play, up from their season average of 5.1 yards per play. Dallas has gone in the other direction, averaging 4.5 yards per play over their last three, down from 5.4 yards on the year.
The Cowboys’ defense has likewise regressed, giving up 5.4 yards per play over their last three versus 5.1 throughout the season. Tampa Bay’s defense has also stepped back (5.5 vs 5.1), but part of that has to do with the team pulling its starters in the second half against Atlanta in the season finale.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, looked completely lost in their season-finale loss to the Commanders with all their starters playing throughout.
I’m not usually a Brady guy, but I’m also not willing to bet against him just because Tampa Bay has struggled to cover at home this season. If anything, I’d take the points and rely on Brady and this Bucs team’s experience in the playoffs to be the difference maker.
The records say Dallas should beat the Bucs easily and Vegas has them favored as well. But a home underdog in the playoffs is a dangerous thing, especially when Brady is the dog under center.
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